20.08.202012:46 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: RUB under pressure from Fed's policy

When a currency shows sluggish reaction to positive news and nosedives amid bad news, it is highly possible that it is under the sellers' control. Thus, the Russian ruble ignored that the S&P 500 hit all-time highs and Brent crude jumped to the upper limit of the mid-term consolidation located at $39-46 per barrel. However, it slumped amid the Fed's refusal to follow the Bank of Japan's policy of the yield curve control. The higher the rates of the US debt market are, the less chances to perform a good deal carry traders will get. Notably, during many years, a play on a difference was the most profitable strategy of the USD/RUB bears.

When global stock indices and oil prices are gaining in value, traders consider it to be a strong sign of the global economic improvement. These events may also lead to higher appetite to risk assets. Under such conditions, the currencies of developing countries should feel confident, especially since carry-trade operations are favored by low volatility. So why did the ruble fail to gain in value?

Dynamic of the ruble and oil.

In my opinion, the key reason is investors' concerns about the resumption of the US-China trade war. Besides, the flow of capital to Europe after the EU accepted the proposal from France and Germany for fiscal stimulus also provoked ruble's weakness. In addition, the market is full of rumors about the S&P 500 bubble. It is said that the P/E ratio for shares included in the index was last logged at such high levels during the dotcom crisis, which turned into a serious sell-off. It is quite possible that the market needs a reason for correction and it may appear in the event of an escalation of the conflict between Washington and Beijing.

Donald Trump, referring to the fact that he does not want to talk to China, which allegedly could have prevented the spread of COVID-19 around the world, canceled a meeting scheduled for August 15 between US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Vice Premier of China Liu He. They should have discussed the interim results of fulfilling commitments to increase American exports. However, the White House says that the meeting has not been canceled, but postponed, and a video conference will be organized in the coming days. In 2018, due to the trade war, the ruble became one of the worst performers on Forex. The risks that the Russian ruble may show the same performance make bears be cautious trading the USD/RUB pair.

The S&P 500 correction may begin due to the growing popularity of the democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. He is planning to raise taxes, which is an unfavorable factor for the stock market. The second wave of the coronavirus in Spain may reach the rest of Europe. This will significantly affect the euro and make the US dollar extremely attractive for investors.

Technically, the daily USD/RUB chart has a combination of price action patterns "Three Indians" and "Splash and Shelf ". This could be a very powerful reversal formation if bears manage to return the quotes to the support level at 72.85. In this scenario, short positions will be relevant. On the contrary, a break of the resistance level at 74.15 will increase the risks of the medium-term uptrend revival.

USD/RUB, Daily chart