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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3205). I also built a downward trend line for the previous two peaks, near which the pair's quotes are currently located. Thus, since there was no rebound from the Fibo level of 23.6%, the rebound can take place from the trend line. In this case, a reversal in favor of the US dollar will be performed and a fall in the direction of the levels of 50.0%, 61.8% and 76.4% will begin. Closing the pair's rate above the trend line will increase the probability of further growth. The information background, meanwhile, remains extremely sparse for the British. There is no news or economic reports from the UK at all. And news from America is now cheerfully ignored by traders. This was the case yesterday with the report on orders for long-term products. However, the British pound has been growing in the past few days. We can conclude that a new wave of riots and protests in the US caused new sales of the dollar. However, in the past two weeks, the US currency has shown no less a strong fall than the current one, twice already. Thus, an unambiguous conclusion about the reasons for the fall of the dollar in the last few days can not be made.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3157). However, instead of rebounding from it, it made a consolidation over it and can now continue the growth process inside the trend ascending channel in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.3370). Thus, the overall mood of traders remains "bullish". Fixing quotes under the ascending corridor will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of a fall in the direction of the corrective levels of 127.2% (1.2964) and 100.0% (1.2812).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes rebounded from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3199) and immediately returned to this level. Thus, now I am waiting for a new rebound from this level or closing above, which will allow traders to count on further growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3684).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the lower downward trend line. A pullback from this line may allow the pair to perform a reversal in favor of the US dollar and resume the process of falling towards the approximately level of 1.1500. This is a long-term perspective.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no news or economic reports in the UK on Wednesday, and traders ignored the US data.
News calendar for the US and UK:
US - number of primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 GMT).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (13:10 GMT).
On August 27, the UK news calendar is empty again. Thus, the pair can only be influenced by Jerome Powell's performance at Jackson Hole.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound again showed a serious increase in the number of long contracts in the hands of speculators (the "Non-commercial"group). Thus, according to the latest COT report, we can only say that the "bullish" mood of the most important group of traders has only strengthened. At the same time, speculators reduced the number of short-contracts by 2.2 thousand. Thus, with such data, the British can resume the growth process at any time. I recommend treating the COT report as a fundamental signal. And every signal requires confirmation. Therefore, more attention should still be paid to graphical analysis. And the COT report only adds to this data. And the latest COT report says that the probability of a strong fall in the British pound is low.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
Today, I recommend selling the British currency with the goals of 1.3167 and 1.3136, if there is a break from the trend line on the hourly chart. Purchases of the British currency will be possible if the quotes close above the trend line on the hourly chart with the goals of 1.3266 and 1.3370.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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