07.09.202011:03 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for EUR/USD

The last COT report from 01.09.20 coincided with last month's closing. Apparently, large players preferred to sum up and fix their profits as they have no clear advantages and clear further plans for the euro. As a result, net positions for all analyzed groups was reduced (Non-Commercial p.p. 196747; -15005, Commercial p.p. 251585; -16397, Dealer Intermediary p.p. 450232; -18610, Total position p.p. 54838 ; -1392), as well as a decline in open interest in the euro (from 704077 to 698211). In addition, the percentage of leading positions declined in all reporting ratios.

The main conclusion

As major players worked with the Euro, they closed the month of August and recorded a profit, preferring to look for new solutions in the new month. The general trend and priorities of directions in the groups have not changed, however, due to the lack of strengthening of leadership positions, it can be assumed that the peak values have been passed and the situation that supports the current leaders and directions may begin to change in the near future, or we will continue the period of reflection and uncertainty.

Technical picture

The reduction in positions and the lack of clear preferences led the euro to another strengthening of bearish mood. The pair closed last week under the daily mid-term trend. The elimination of the daily golden cross (1.1886-54-16) and the exit from the monthly cloud (1.1740) are the immediate and main tasks on the way of implementing further bearish plans and forming new prospects for them. On the other hand, the next downside target is the execution of the weekly correction to the short-term trend (1.1656). In the current situation, it is important for bullish players to stay in the monthly Ichimoku cloud and continue to rise to its upper border (1.2166).

The main advantage is now on the side of the bearish players in lower time frames. They consolidated under the weekly long-term trend and reversed the moving average; now it acts as a key resistance (1.1879) at the hourly chart. The current weakening factor is the fact that bulls continue to hold positions in the attraction zone and support the second key level of the lower halves - the central pivot level (1.1828). Considering that the levels of the lower time frames are now gaining strength from the important levels of the higher times, the main result and further prospects in the current situation will be formed with confirmation at upper time frames.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)