17.09.202016:29 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: The COVID-19 may affect the US election

Will Trump still hold the presidency after the election in November? It all depends on the success of the United States in the fight against the ill-fated pandemic. At a conference held on September 8, billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach confirmed the link between the popularity of Donald Trump and the number of new cases of COVID-19 in the United States.

As paradoxical as it may sound, the coronavirus can affect the outcome of elections in many ways. The degree of financial assistance provided by the US government in the fight against the pandemic is very high, however, it cannot be considered in the long term, because it will inevitably lead to a crisis. Jeffrey Gundlach suggested that over the past months, Americans have been pinning all their hopes on unemployment benefits, and this is a negative factor and can not lead to a favorable outcome.

The financial support measures taken by the government in the fight against the epidemiological crisis are estimated to be the largest in the world. Moreover, global GDP is predicted to decline by 3.9% this year, and the US GDP by 5.0%. It is easy to see the contradiction between the current state of the American economy and what preceded the pandemic when there was an obvious slowdown. The billionaire notes that the number of hours worked per week is an indicator of expansion and recession, and in the US, this indicator has grown significantly and returned to the section of averages over the past 60 years. At the same time, it is impossible not to mention the fact that consumer confidence has collapsed and continues to remain at low levels.

In April 2016, billionaire financier Gundlach predicted Trump's victory in the election and even voiced a forecast that the US national debt will grow significantly during the presidency.