28.10.202012:20 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on October 28, 2020

Despite mixed statistics from the United States, the US dollar managed to strengthen its position against the single European currency in yesterday's trading. Thus, the so-called "fence" of alternating bullish and bearish candlesticks was broken.

Yesterday's block of statistics on orders for durable goods exceeded analysts' expectations and all came out in the green zone. It is noteworthy that after this, the dynamics of the US dollar practically did not change. However, the US consumer confidence indicator was worse than the forecast of 102 and amounted to 100.9. It was after these weaker-than-expected data that the US currency began to actively strengthen. This factor once again shows that market participants often ignore macroeconomic statistics.

As for the spread of COVID-19, the situation continues to worsen. As of last night, more than 43 million people have already been infected with coronavirus in the world. The second wave of the pandemic hit the United States, where the daily number of infected people exceeds 80 thousand. In Europe, the situation also remains extremely difficult. In France and a number of other European countries, new and stricter restrictions are being introduced. Such actions of the authorities are not to the taste of many Europeans who go out and protest against restrictions and wearing masks. People are getting tired of all this, and they can partly understand it. In some places, for example in Germany, it came to clashes with the police. In Italy, surveys have shown that the majority of citizens agree with the restrictions imposed by the Cabinet of Ministers, however, there are also dissatisfied with the fact that bars and restaurants close very early and you can not visit fitness clubs. Italian Prime Minister Conte announced that five billion euros will be allocated to support small and medium-sized businesses in the country.

Daily

Looking at the daily chart, we see that yesterday's recommendation to sell the pair near 1.1800 was generally correct. In the first half of yesterday's trading, the quote showed strengthening and tried to return above the falsely broken resistance level of 1.1830. However, after reaching 1.1838, the pair turned to decline and ended trading on October 27 exactly at the support level of 1.1786. It is also worth noting that the closing price of yesterday's trading was below the 50 simple moving average, but above the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator. However, today at the time of writing, the euro/dollar is trading below the Tenkan, near 1.1772. Judging by the mood of market participants, the US dollar continues to be in demand as a protective asset and has every chance of continuing to strengthen against the single European currency. Given that today is not scheduled for the release of macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone and the United States, trading in EUR/USD will be determined by technical factors and market sentiment, which is still on the side of the US currency.

H1

As you can see, on the hourly chart, the pair has already consolidated under the support level of 1.1786 with more than three candles in a row, so you can try selling on the rollback to the broken mark. If we consider the opening of short positions slightly higher, this is the price area near 1.1800. With this positioning, I do not recommend setting large goals but limit yourself to the level of 1.1745, which was previously a resistance, but now can perform a support function.