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Yesterday, the euro's situation developed according to our main scenario without a false upward surge. And the euro was pushed to this scenario by a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, Klaas Knot, by announcing the possibility of lowering the rate to increase inflation. The business media did not believe Knot, because no one doubts the growth of inflation without the influence of the changed rates due to the continuing pumping of markets with unsecured liquidity. Most likely, the ECB is simply trying to hint about the high rate of the euro. One way or another, but the investors reacted unequivocally - they began to sell the euro.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in an optimistic vein regarding the prospects for the economy. He said that the economy has proved to be very resilient to blackouts, it will grow in the second half of the year, and the asset buyback program will continue "as long as necessary" and investors will be warned in advance about the central bank's intention to begin its reduction. This time investors correctly understood Powell's words - if the economy is doing well, then the Fed will issue a "warning" in the foreseeable future.
Fourth quarter US GDP, trade balance and new home sales are due today. All indicators are expected to grow.
The price stopped at the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. If the price moves below it, under yesterday's low (1.2058), the target opens at 1.1915 - the peak of four local highs: November 9, September 10, August 6, July 31.
The price settled below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is declining. We are waiting for the price to overcome the signal level of 1.2058 and the succeeding fall of the EUR/USD pair.
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