04.02.202109:27 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: US dollar might not decline this year contrary to previous forecast

Yesterday's economic statistics from the US may prevent the American stock indices and other trading floors to further rise. Rather, it may encourage the continued smooth growth of the US currency.

ADP report on employment data showed that the number of new jobs in January clearly rose more than was expected. The U.S. economy had been expected to add just 49,000 new jobs, but instead it rose by 174,000, which was noticeably higher than the forecast, with December's numbers revised upward from -123,000 to -78,000.

The reaction of the currency market to this news was quite calm, but after some swinging, the US dollar resumed strengthening, which intensified in the Asia-Pacific trading session and continues before the opening of trading in Europe.

Yesterday, important data from the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing PMI was also released, which surged from 57.7 points to 58.7 points in January, with a forecast decline to 56.8 points.

So, why would the presented economic statistics have a negative impact on the further growth of stock indices and support the demand for the dollar?

The fact is that the strong rally in the stock markets at the end of last year was based not only on growing hopes that vaccination will weaken the COVID-19 impact and allow the global economy to recover actively, but also on the expectation of Biden's proposed new large-scale fiscal stimulus measures during the presidential election campaign. Earlier, investors assumed that the poor state of the US economy and the labor market would necessarily force the United States to take aid measures on an unprecedented scale. But if the situation begins to improve smoothly while the debate between Republicans and Democrats in Congress on the topic of incentives is ongoing, then the need for these very voluminous measures of $ 1.9 trillion will gradually disappear. This means that investors who believed that growth in the value of shares will continue due to the new injection of dollar liquidity, and those who bought shares of companies on this wave, may moderate their appetites. This will lead to a new correction in the US stock market and in the world as a whole.

This current condition amid the continued growth in Treasury yields will support the demand for the US currency. This is also due to the fact that following the Fed's meeting in January, the regulator made it clear that the current monetary rate may change at any time.

Today, the official employment data will be presented. If they are positive, this will push the dollar to continue rising in the currency markets.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure above the level of 1.2015. After breaking through it, further decline can be expected to 1.1970.

The GBP/USD pair is trading above the level of 1.3600. A decline below it will lead to further decline towards the level of 1.3525.