30.03.202117:59 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Analysis of EUR/USD on March 30, 2021. US economy and currency cannot grow forever on cash infusions from Congress and the Fed

The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still quite unambiguous. I have said more than once in recent months that I expect the instrument to move in three-wave structures, which will be represented by the a-b-c-d-e structure on the higher chart. At the moment, this assumption is fulfilled by 100%. I expected that below the 76.4% Fibonacci level, the instrument would not be able to continue the decline, but today has shown that the markets are still quite ready for a sell-off. At this time, it turns out, the dollar is growing, and a little below I will try to understand the reasons for its growth. Here I would like to note that the decline in quotes may continue with targets located near the level of 100.0% Fibonacci. In any case, wave c at e should be completed now. At least, the current wave counting is supposed to be just such a variant. If the supposed wave e takes a five-wave form, then the entire wave counting will require additions. However, at the moment, everything looks pretty straightforward.

The more the US dollar grows, the more there is a reason to assume that the markets have already taken into account all the factors that could support this currency, some even in advance. Even though the rate of vaccination in the United States is much higher than in Europe, and on May 1, the entire adult population of the country can already be vaccinated, do not forget that economic data is more important. Exactly a year ago, the US GDP collapsed by 31%, which is why the USD began to fall. Of course, there were other reasons, but I believe that it was the economic ones that were in the first place. Now the US dollar is recovering at a high rate, and the President and Congress are doing their best to assist it in this process.

Just a week ago, an aid package worth $1.9 trillion began its operation, and by the summer another aid package, worth $3-4 trillion, may be approved. However, it is at this moment that the Trojan horse lies. If it is so easy and simple to stimulate your economy, just print or raise money and invest it in the economy, then why don't the European Union do the same? Or the UK? I believe that the huge sums that fill the US economy is a double-edged sword. The recipe for economic recovery cannot be that simple. Either sooner or later inflation will shoot up, which will then be very difficult to contain, and it will put pressure on the economy, or the US dollar will begin to depreciate by itself, given how much was spent on recovery. In any case, the current section of the trend, according to the current counting, is nearing completion. If there are no changes, then in the next week the construction of a new upward trend section may begin.

Based on the analysis, I am now rejecting the buy scenario, as the instrument made a successful attempt to break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level. Thus, now we again recommend selling with targets near the estimated 1.1605, which equates to 100.0% Fibonacci. At the same time, the downward trend is nearing completion.

The wave counting of the upward trend still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. But the section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. Supposed wave d turned out to be shortened, so now the construction of the supposed wave e continues.