14.04.202105:45 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2021

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro rose against macroeconomic data. The index of sentiment in the business circles of the eurozone ZEW for the current month decreased from 74.0 to 66.3 while expecting growth to 77.2, the consumer price index in the US increased by 0.6% in March against the expectation of 0.5%. Obviously, the reason lies in the decline in government bond yields. So 5-year US securities yield fell from 0.89% to 0.84%. The yield is falling for the second week in a row, and is now in the consolidation range of March 12-26, and this introduces an intrigue: will there be an upward reversal from it or a breakthrough to the downside?

The technical situation for the euro has become more uncertain than in the last two days. The price went above the balance indicator line on the daily chart, shifting the market's interest in buying, possibly with the intention to overcome the resistance of the MACD line at the levels of the highs on March 18 and 11 - 1.1990. Getting the pair to settle above the level may push it to rise to 1.2025, then to 1.2105 - to the correction levels of 50.0% and 61.8% of the movement from the January high to the March low. The Marlin oscillator has gone above its own resistance at 0.0092 and is now strengthening in growth. It is still far from the overbought zone.

The price moved up from the consolidation range on a four-hour timescale. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth area. The price clearly intends to test the first resistance at 1.1990 for strength. A reversal is possible only when the price has finally settled below the MACD line, approximately below the 1.1895 level.