01.06.202117:50 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Cryptocurrency market analysis on June 1, 2021

The wave counting of the 4-hour chart of bitcoin still suggests an increase in quotes. After the cryptocurrency quotes fell by more than $30,000, two upward waves were already built. Thus, I assume that at this time, the construction of a new three-wave structure has begun, where waves a and b are already present. If this is true, then the increase in prices will continue with the current levels in the framework of the assumed wave c with the targets, positioned above the expected peak of wave a. That is, above the $42,000 mark. However, at the moment, bitcoin quotes are moving up with great difficulty. Affected by the lack of a good news background, which has always been of great importance for the cryptocurrency. Thus, I consider an alternative option to build tools of complex corrective structures, which will be horizontal or close to such. It is already clear that the instrument is in a triangle, which means a very limited range of movements of the main cryptocurrency.

The news background for bitcoin remains rather negative. There is, of course, news that inspires a little optimism in the hearts, but there are really few of them. Recent major news has come from China and the United States, where the authorities have set out to severely restrict mining and uncontrolled operations with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which greatly reduces the demand for the asset. I believe that it is this news that prevents bitcoin from developing at least a corrective increase within the wave counting presented above. However, for example, in Argentina, there has recently been an increase in mining capacity and, in fact, an increase in the number of miners themselves. Inflation in Argentina is very high, reaching 50% per year. Thus, the national currency depreciates almost twice every year, as well as the savings of the country's residents. In search of protection from inflation and taking advantage of low electricity prices, local residents began to actively buy mining equipment and mine bitcoin, since even the latest drop in its quotes still makes it very profitable to mine and then sell it.

It should also be noted that Argentina has a law that prohibits local residents from buying foreign currency in large quantities. Thus, the population does not have the opportunity to protect themselves from inflation by buying a more stable currency. Therefore, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for them are really a good way to make money and partly win back the depreciation of the local currency. However, one positive news from Argentina is clearly not enough for bitcoin to continue its growth. Recently, many central banks have issued statements warning investors that they could lose everything on bitcoin transactions. The cryptocurrency itself was also sharply criticized, which is overly volatile and speculative, and is also rarely used for its intended purpose, that is, as a means of payment.

Based on the analysis, I believe that the three downward wave structure is complete. The current wave counting indicates a possible rise within wave c, I continue to recommend buying bitcoin for each MACD upward signal with targets located around $42,500. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level could lead to a new decline in bitcoin, but I more hope that in the coming year, the cryptocurrency will build complex corrective structures and will not resume the upward trend.