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Friday's US employment report came out good, but insufficient to support the inflated expectations of investors: unemployment fell from 6.1% to 5.8% (forecast 5.9%), Non-Farm Employment Change showed 559,000 new jobs against expectations of 650,000. Market participants were more confused by the indicator of the economically active population, which decreased from 61.7% to 61.6%. The head of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Loretta Mester commented on the data in a similar vein, they say, the increase in employment does not correspond to the wording "significant progress." As a result, the euro gained 39 points.
The price returned to the accumulation range that began on May 18 (gray area on the daily chart), which on the one hand, the previous move under it on June 3 is interpreted as false, and on the other hand, Friday's growth can be considered as a correction from the movement of June 1-3. The whole history of the euro since April 19 has been above the balance and MACD indicator lines, which inclines the option that the growth will continue to the predominant one. But growth can be local, within the target range of 1.2272-1.2310, and from there turn into a downward decline with the formation of a triple divergence with the Marlin oscillator. There may be a higher rise in the euro, as a continuation of the trend from March last year.
If the price moves below the target level of 1.2051 (May 13 low), it will be able to steer the euro on a medium-term downward path. And such a distribution in the scenarios occurred only because of one Friday upward price surge. Now the uncertainty range expands to 260 points: 1.2051-1.2310. The price can stay in this range for more than a month.
On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to turn down from the zero line. The situation remains completely downward on this timeframe, therefore, if the price wants to develop a decline, it should be done today so as not to get bogged down in technical contradictions and, accordingly, in a sideways trend, as already mentioned. We are waiting for the development of events and conditions to form for opening trading positions.
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