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Today, the only thing that matters is the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, which could lead to further weakening of the single European currency. First, the unemployment rate should fall from 5.8% to 5.7%. That is, the main indicator of the current state of the labor market indicates an improvement in the situation. At the same time, the level of economic activity may grow from 61.6% to 61.7%, which indicates an increase in the number of able-bodied workers. So it turns out that the actual decline in the unemployment rate is even greater. Secondly, 570 thousand new jobs should be created outside agriculture. That is, unemployment will continue to decline, and it will be even faster than now, since 492 thousand new jobs were created in the previous month. Third, the growth rate of average hourly wages could accelerate from 2.0% to 2.1%. It turns out that the number of employees has increased, and the income of each of them has also increased, so as a result, the total income has increased quite significantly. Consequently, consumer activity will also grow, which is the main driver of the American economy. Due to all these factors, it is clear that the American economy is doing pretty well, and the situation will only get better. Ergo, there is no doubt that the dollar will continue to rise, unless the data turns out to be worse than the announced forecasts.
Number of New Non-Agricultural Jobs Created (United States):
During the outgoing trading week, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to fully restore short positions in relation to the recent correction. The volume of the weakening of the euro on Friday morning is 0.86%.
Market dynamics show signs of acceleration, where speculative interest is visible to the naked eye. Average daily volatility in the period from June 28 to July 1 is 50 pips.
If we proceed from the current location of the quote, the point of variable pivot is being tested in the face of the price region 1.1835 / 1.1860 at the given moment of time.
In order for a signal of radical changes to appear on the market, the quote must stay lower than 1.1800, and in this case, a path will open in the direction of the value 1.1700.
An alternative scenario of market development considers a reduction in the volume of short positions, thereby repeating the natural basis of the past from June 21.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments have a variable signal only on a 1-minute interval. Hourly and daily periods signal a sale.
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