05.08.202110:03 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Ray Dalio: Bitcoin is good, but I would still choose gold

Bitcoin has started to fall and will now strive for the level of $29,700. Despite the fact that the cryptocurrency retains chances of returning to the local maximum near the level of $42,300, we believe that it cannot avoid a fall to $29,700 in any case. Thus, the key question at this time is whether bitcoin will continue the current round of falling to the target level in the form of the lower boundary of an expanding side channel, or will it make another test of the upper boundary of this channel and then collapse down? Unlike a whole army of cryptocurrency experts, investors and functionaries do not believe that there are enough grounds for a new bullish trend at this time. On the contrary, we do not see any good fundamental reasons for the continuation of the growth of the bitcoin rate. Yesterday, the SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) slightly supported bitcoin, as its head, Gary Gensler, said that the organization will now allow the creation of exchange-traded funds for bitcoin (ETFs). Earlier, according to Gensler, the SEC rejected all such applications. Now, the head of the SEC expects an influx of new people who want to organize such funds. Bitcoin has grown by $2,000 on the back of this news, but this news is of a local nature. Simply put, it can provide a little support, but it is unlikely that a new strong round of the upward trend will now begin because of this message.

At the same time, a well-known financier and founder of the investment company Bridgewater Associates said that bitcoin is "digital gold", but personally he would prefer to deal with ordinary gold, rather than its digital version. According to Dalio, bitcoin is too volatile, too speculative, and it can be banned by the authorities of any country. Dalio also noted that you can justify absolutely any forecast, whether it is growth or decline, but you should not buy such assets just because they are currently on the rise. At the same time, the head of Celsius, Alex Mashinsky, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance that bitcoin is absolutely not suitable for payments, but at the same time it is excellent for savings. According to Mashinsky, the American dollar copes with the payment function perfectly, and other cryptocurrencies are much better suited for this than bitcoin. Also, according to Mashinsky, by the end of this year, bitcoin will soar to $140,000 - $160,000 per coin.

As for us, we continue to draw the attention of traders to the technical picture and the fact that, according to all signs, the upward trend has been completed, which means that bitcoin has entered a period of prolonged consolidation and correction. And even the growth of $10,000 in recent weeks is not a sign that the bullish trend will now be resumed. Moreover, the side channel is visible on the chart.

Technically, bitcoin has worked out the target level of $40,700 with a margin and reached the level of $42,300. However, a rebound from the upper boundary of the expanding channel allows us to expect a strong drop in bitcoin. We still expect a decline in the quotes of the main cryptocurrency to the level of $29,700. So far, the fundamental background remains clearly not on the side of bitcoin. Therefore, it is now possible to sell the cryptocurrency instrument.