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GBP/USD – 1H
Hello, dear traders! On the H1 chart, GBP/USD rose to the 76.4% retracement level of 1.3892, following the release of jobs market data in the United States on Friday. The quote went down towards the 38.2% retracement level of 1.3830. A rebound from this level or the upper trend line is likely to reverse the trend. In such a case, the price is expected to increase to 1.3892. Bulls are prepared to take control over the market. On Friday, the macroeconomic calendar was full of important events. Thus, the UK's services PMI for August was ignored by traders as they were solely focused on the labor market data in the US.
Firstly, Nonfarm Payrolls came well below market expectations, which led to a steep fall in the US dollar on Friday. Secondly, the unemployment level dropped to 5.2% from 5.4%. Thirdly, average hourly earnings soared to 4.3%, which was well above market estimates. Lastly, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI plunged to 61.7 from 64.1. In other words, the data came mixed. At the moment, the quote fell to the opening level of Friday, meaning that the market ignored the results. Anyway, the market remains bullish, which is likely to trigger buying of the pound sterling. Disappointing labor market statistics in the US undermine the greenback's upside potential in the next several weeks. A lot will depend on the Federal Reserve and its board meeting scheduled for September. The regulator will once again discuss the future of quantitative easing.
GBP/USD – 4H
On the H4 chart, GBP/USD rose to the 76.4% and 23.6% retracement levels of 1.3892 and 1.3870 respectively. Then, the quote reversed and headed towards 1.3836 and 1.3791. A rebound from any of these marks is likely to resume the upward trend to 1.3892. Neither of the indicators is forming divergence today. Traders should focus their attention on the trend line on the H1 chart.
United States and United Kingdom macroeconomic calendar:
On Monday, the macroeconomic calendar will be empty.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The latest COT report as of August 31 logged an increase in bullish sentiment among Non-commercial traders. Speculators closed 2,467 long and 4,809 short positions. Speculators are holding more short positions than long ones. Overall, sentiment remains bearish. The pound sterling is rising in value. Meanwhile, traders struggle to close below 1.3600. In other words, it is not clear whether the sterling will continue falling. Sell signals should be generated on the chart, and they should come in line with the results of the COT report.
Outlook for EUR/USD:
Today, traders should consider opening long positions with the target at 1.3892 if the price rebounds from the 61.8% retracement level of 1.3837 (or 1.3830) on the H1 chart. Meanwhile, short positions should be considered if the quote closes below 1.3830 on the H1 chart with the target at 1.3792 or the trend line.
TERMS:
Non-commercial traders are large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, and large investors.
Commercial traders are commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, and companies that buy currency not to obtain speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import transactions.
Non-reportable positions are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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