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Hi, dear traders!
First, let us look at the news. The UK and France remain at loggerheads over fishing and the Channel migrant crisis. A phone call between Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson has failed to produce a breakthrough. Macron criticized the British prime minister for publishing his letter to the French president on Twitter. Furthermore, according to reports in France, Macron privately called Johnson "a clown". The diplomatic row between the two countries is unlikely to be resolved soon.
Today is the main event on this week's economic calendar - at 08:30 am ET, the US Department of Labor publishes the November non-farm payroll report.
Daily
The market has remained indecisive so far, as the highlighted long-legged doji candlestick at the daily chart suggests. On November 30, the pair failed to settle at both the intraday high and low. It was followed by two days of mixed trading. At this point, GBP/USD is under pressure, but its trajectory could only be decided after the non-farm payrolls are released. The payroll data would also substantially increase volatility in the market. On the technical side, the red Tenkan-Sen line of the Ichimoku cloud is a strong resistance for the pair's upside movement, pushing GBP/USD down.
H4
According to the H4 chart, the pair is trading in the descending channel formed by the 1.3813-1.3350 resistance line and the 1.3423 support line. Right above the channel's support line lies the 50-day MA, followed by the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% (1.3832-1.3193), the 1.3368 resistance level, and the black 89-day EMA, serving as an obstacle for an upward breakout. The MACD indicator is showing a bullish divergence that is considered a secondary signal. At this point, relying solely on divergence trading is too risky. Taking into account the end of the trading week, the upcoming non-farm payrolls report and mixed technical signals at daily, H1, and H4 charts, traders are recommended to stay out of the market today.
Good luck!
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