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Cryptocurrencies were not very encouraging at the weekend, having collapsed by almost 20%. The fall in the area of $41,000 was definitely not included in the plans or forecasts.
But be that as it may, the technicality with which the price remained above the level of 48,175.51, which worked before, is encouraging. It now serves as that shaky frontier keeping the mainstream cryptocurrency from the next downturn.
By tracking the news feed for the cryptocurrency market over three days, it is difficult to clearly see the reason for the slump over the weekend. Everyone is looking at the technical picture and holding onto the $48,000 support.
In fact, there is no special guide at present apart from technology. In such a situation, there are two immediate scenarios: an upward pullback to the area of $52,000 - $53,000 per coin and a breakdown of the support at $48,000.
In either case, it is difficult to talk about a return to growth in the near future. The most optimistic scenario, in my opinion, is consolidation in the range of $48,000 - $52,000. Although there are those who expect a V-shaped pullback, it has not yet happened. It can be judged by consolidating above $53,000 per bitcoin.
The second scenario is a breakout of the $48,000 support, in which Bitcoin can be caught at Saturday's lows in the $42,000 area.
Analyst firm CryptoQuant warned on Sunday that the rise in major moves on crypto exchanges indicates that whales may increase their sales.
Such conclusions were made on the basis of a metric that shows the ratio of whales on the exchange. It is calculated based on the maximum size of inflows and outflows from exchanges compared to the volume of total inflows.
Before bitcoin collapsed on Saturday, forming its low, this ratio increased to its peak of 0.95. It returned to the same value on Monday.
CryptoQuant also added that there is a noticeable cooling in the futures market, which can be seen in the decrease in the calculated leverage ratio by 22%.
In contrast, over the past few days, smaller investors have increased their positions - in contrast to the price adjustments of both whales and bitcoins that took place earlier in 2021.
But did someone buy out the bottom, judging by the long Saturday shadow to return to $48,000 per bitcoin? So far, yes, and the data shows retail investors are taking advantage of the opportunity to restock cryptocurrencies. Not to mention El Salvador, who loves to buy the bottom in the tradition of President Bukele.
What is all this for? If major players continue to sell BTCUSD, the current support is unlikely to resist and the price may well return to Saturday's lows. In the current situation, it is very difficult to make predictions other than the technical ones described above. Therefore, as Grandpa Dow bequeathed to us, it is worth focusing on the levels and the price, which includes everything.
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