30.12.202113:54 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD on December 30

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair turned in favour of the European currency and rose strongly towards the retracement level of 161.8% (1.1357) as well as towards the upper boundary of the sideways corridor, which still characterises the current mood of traders as neutral. The pair's rebound from both the level and the boundary has already favoured the American currency and the drop towards 1.1250 has begun. However, all these movements are still taking place within the sideways corridor. Thus, the general chart pattern has not changed for more than a month. Trading volumes remain very low, but the pair is moving very fast. This is probably due to the small number of traders remaining in the market. It takes much less effort from bulls or bears to make the pair move now. The information background remains the same at the moment. Yesterday there were no important economic reports, no important events, no statements, and no speeches.

Therefore, I do not believe that yesterday's rise in the Euro currency and today's rise in the US currency are related to information background. Basically, traders are still following the news about the coronavirus, omicron, the rate of increase of diseases in the US, the European Union countries and other similar information. However, given that the pair has been trading in a sideways corridor for more than a month, is it reasonable to conclude that traders are making decisions based on this information? The omicron situation is deteriorating in both the US and the EU. So far, there is a high probability of a new tightening of quarantine restrictions and the introduction of new lockdowns. Certainly, many governments are trying to avoid this extreme option, but if the situation continues to deteriorate at the same rate, it will be impossible to avoid. In the European Union, several countries have already started to tighten quarantine. In particular, nightclubs and fitness centres are being closed and the maximum number of spectators at football matches is being reduced.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the upper boundary of the half-side and half-down corridor. Thus, the reversal in favor of the greenback was made. A new downside movement towards the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1148), which is located at the same place as the lower boundary of the corridor, started. A consolidation above the corridor did not happen, so bullish traders are retreating from the market again. There are no emerging divergences in any of the indicators today.

News calendar for US and EU:

US - Number of initial jobless claims (13-30 UTC).

On Thursday, there will be no important economic events in the US and EU. One report in the US is unlikely to affect the mood of traders. I believe that the information backdrop today will have no effect on the mood of the traders.

EUR/USD outlook and tips for traders:

There was a pullback from 1.1357, so we should have used this sell signal to open a position. Target is 1.1250 on the hourly chart. I recommend buying the pair on a signal of the rebound from 1.1250 or lower border of the sideways corridor on the hour chart, as well as on a signal of closing above the corridor. In the first case the target will be 1.1357, in the second case the target will be 1.1450.