17.05.202205:55 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Ukraine-Russia conflict, day 83. The split in NATO and the European Union.

The key indices of the US stock market - Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 - ended Monday with a slight increase. However, in general, a fairly strong correction continues, and we expect it to continue for most of 2022. So far, everything is going strictly according to plan. There were no important events or publications on Monday, but the geopolitical situation in NATO and the European Union is becoming more and more interesting. In short, Hungary continues to block the introduction of an oil embargo against Russia, and Turkey refuses to approve the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO. Let's look into it in more detail.

We have already talked about Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orban is on good terms with Russia. Naturally, now that the entire European Union condemns the actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, its rhetoric also contains condemnation of military actions and support for Ukraine. However, in practice, Hungary remains the only country that prohibits the transit of military and humanitarian aid and also does not support sanctions against the Russian Federation. Of course, Hungary cannot block all the initiatives of the European Commission in a row. However, when it came to oil, Budapest refused to accept the sixth package of sanctions. It should be understood that it is the oil embargo that can hurt the Russian economy the most, all other sanctions are less dangerous and destructive. Hungary cares about its interests, as the country is very dependent on Russian oil. It does not have access to the sea, so it is quite difficult for it to import oil from other countries. Difficult and expensive. Therefore, the European Commission has already offered a 20-month postponement for Hungary, but Orban refused this offer and demanded at least a five-year postponement. We believe that eventually, the European Union will be able to reach an agreement with Orban, but so far the package of sanctions remains blocked because of one country.

A similar situation arose with the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO. Turkish President Recep Erdogan said that both these countries are "hotbeds of terrorism", so he cannot give his consent to their joining the Alliance. He also noted that Finland and Sweden imposed sanctions against their country, so he does not understand how obvious opponents can be in the same military alliance. It is noteworthy that NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that there would be no problems with the approval of NATO membership, and Turkey would not be a hindrance. Therefore, most likely, negotiations with Ankara will now be conducted at the highest level. Stoltenberg also officially announced this on Sunday. Thus, it remains only to understand whether Hungary and Turkey are blocking both initiatives based on their interests, or whether this is covert support for Russia, which, of course, does not benefit from both initiatives. One way or another, the negotiations will continue.