06.07.202206:23 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: The rate hike will not result in a recession, according to the head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve.

As mentioned in previous articles, the impending recession in the American economy is currently one of the most discussed topics. These same experts, however, pay little attention to the European and British economies, which are also approaching recession. Recall that the European gross domestic product increased by 0.6% in the first quarter. Thus, virtually any increase in the ECB's key rate can result in zero or negative growth. The UK's first-quarter GDP was 0.8%, which was notably lower than the previous quarter, and the Bank of England has raised interest rates five times and may do so a sixth time by early August. Thus, the quarterly growth of each economy currently indicates unstable growth, which is very simple to correct through monetary policy tightening. In the United States, GDP is already negative; the economy contracted by 1.6% in the first quarter. We should discuss a recession based on annual data, but many experts already anticipate a decline in the second quarter.

Mary Daly, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that she anticipates a slowdown in the US economy, but not a recession. She observed that the regulator is aggressively raising interest rates, but this is solely to reduce demand and slow inflation. According to Ms. Daly, the Fed will do everything necessary to influence inflation while maintaining at least minimal economic growth. James Bullard, the most "hawkish" member of the FOMC, reiterated that the key rate must be raised to 3–3.5 percent so that the inflation slowdown can begin as soon as possible. The stronger the initial impulse for its decline, the quicker it will accelerate in the opposite direction, making it easier for the Fed to control this indicator, leading to a rate cut the following year. From our perspective, it is illogical to make predictions for the end of 2022 or 2023 at this time. We must consider how inflation will respond to the already implemented tightening of monetary policy. This will be possible on July 13, when the next report is published. If inflation does not demonstrate a significant deceleration this time, the Fed will have to raise rates by 0.75 percent this month. So will it be for every subsequent meeting this year? The worse inflation reacts to the Fed's actions, the greater the likelihood that the Fed's already aggressive approach to rates will become even more aggressive. And this means that the stock market will continue to decline. In addition, the dollar is likely to continue appreciating.