16.08.202210:58 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Pound sterling tumbles amid mixed employment data

GBP/USD has failed to find support in UK employment data. The pound sterling has dropped on Tuesday after reversing downwards earlier.

UK employment data: neither good nor bad

Yesterday, GBP/USD once again came under severe bearish pressure. The pair lost 0.1% on Monday and reached 1.2040, its lowest point since August 5.

The pound sterling managed to recover some of its losses and consolidated at 1.2050 early on Tuesday, fuelled by expectations regarding the UK employment data for June.

A stronger than expected report would have made a 50 bps interest rate increase by the Bank of England in September more likely.

However, the data release did not impress traders and failed to reverse the pound sterling upwards.

In fact, the mixed employment data only accelerated the pound sterling's downward momentum.

According to the report, the ILO unemployment rate in the UK remained at 3.8% in June, matching forecasts.

However, the number of people claiming jobless benefits fell by about 10,500, falling short of expected decline by 32,000 and below the 20,000 decrease reported in May.

Rising wages in the UK were the only positive note in the data release for the bulls.

Wages in the UK excluding bonuses increased by 4.7% from a year ago, exceeding the forecasted 4.5% increase and the 4.3% reported last year.

Average earnings including bonuses rose by 5.1% year-over-year. Economists expected wages to climb by 4.5%.

Goodbye, pound?

Another key negative factor weighing down on GBP/USD is the risk of an economic slowdown.

If the Bank of England will continue to fight record inflation by hiking interest rates, it could send the UK economy into a recession.

On the other hand, increasing concerns over the cost-of-living crisis in the UK also pose a threat to the pound sterling.

Despite pledges by PM candidates, most residents in the UK expect energy bills to go up, polls say.

Political instability in the UK, which followed Boris Johnson's resignation, is likely to be another significant obstacle to GBP/USD's upside movement in the near future.

The lack of progress in the UK-EU negotiations on Brexit and the status of Northern Ireland are threatening the pound as well.

Many analysts believe that the UK currency would continue to slide down in the near future. UOB's currency strategists see GBP/USD tumble in the short term, should the pair break below its key support at 1.2000.