18.08.202206:45 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: How to determine the beginning of a recession?

In recent weeks, and maybe even months, the conversations in the foreign exchange market have only been about inflation, monetary policy, and a possible recession. At the same time, the opinions of experts and officials were frankly divided. Some believe that the recession in the American economy has already begun (two negative quarters of GDP). Someone believes that it is wrong to consider the recession started based only on GDP reports. On the one hand, it would be better to talk about inflation in the context of the annual GDP indicator. On the other hand, the annual indicator consists of quarterly and monthly indicators.

It should be noted that the decision to start a recession was made in the United States by a special committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private organization. Thus, the possibility of influence on it from the US government or the Fed is excluded. This group of experts analyzes various macroeconomic indicators to identify recessions that cover the entire economy. There were cases when this committee announced a recession when GDP continued to grow. Therefore, in the States, the verdict on the beginning of a recession is not related to the GDP indicator alone. It is known that recently, the committee has paid special attention to real household incomes and the unemployment rate. These indicators are now at their height and do not cause concern. Real incomes continue to grow (although not at the same pace as inflation), and unemployment remains at its lowest level in 50 years. Thus, the conclusion can be made as follows. Officially, the recession can be considered to have begun if, with a negative GDP, the growth rate of wages begins to fall and unemployment increases. To what values should the first indicator slow down and the second one grow for the recession to be officially announced?

Nevertheless, many experts believe that the US economy will be unable to avoid an increase in unemployment against the backdrop of the largest monetary policy tightening in the last 40 years. As a result, it is simply impossible to answer the question of whether a recession will begin in 2022. Technically, it has already begun. If unemployment rises and real incomes fall, it will no longer be just a "technical recession." Therefore, we need to wait for the next macroeconomic reports.

From our point of view, if macroeconomic indicators start to deteriorate, the stock market will not be able to continue to show growth. Even the current growth looks strange, but still fits into the concept of a technical correction. Nevertheless, if it continues further, it will most likely be possible to conclude the global flow of capital into the American economy since there will be no other way to explain the desire of investors to buy stocks and indices at a time when the Fed is actively raising the rate. We would not rush to a conclusion about the end of the "bearish" trend.