02.10.202213:36 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Bitcoin is being cornered

As seen in the illustration of the 24-hour TF, Bitcoin has finally stopped moving in the last two weeks. If earlier the cryptocurrency at least moved a significant distance from the $ 18,500 level, now it is trading exclusively along it. The price is stuck between the critical line and the $18,500 level. And in fact, it is now being squeezed between the trend line and the $ 18,500. That is, bitcoin is now in the corner, both literally and figuratively. There is nothing else to do but overcome the trend line (and, simultaneously, the critical line) or overcome the $18,500 level: either one or the other. Thus, the more time passes, the faster the waiting period will end. Traders are waiting for a trend movement. However, if the trend line is overcome, the cryptocurrency can spend a long time inside the side channel of $ 18,500–$ 24,350. Recall that overcoming the trend line in the flat is not a buy signal. Thus, "hour X" is approaching, but it is still unclear how it will end.

At certain moments, there is a feeling that the market does not know what to do or is waiting for something. Since no important events like the Fed meeting are looming on the horizon, the first option is the most likely one. Nevertheless, news comes from time to time, although, unfortunately, lately, only of a geopolitical nature. However, it would be best if you did not turn a blind eye to geopolitics, considering that it has nothing to do with bitcoin. Recall that bitcoin is also steadily falling against the background of global rate hikes by central banks and the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in 2022, as well as stock markets and risky currencies.

Consequently, a new deterioration in geopolitics(which has already happened and may become even worse) may well provoke a new drop in "bitcoin," which is justified, from our point of view, even technically. Investors (except Microstrategy) are in no hurry to buy bitcoin despite the current "very attractive" levels. Most likely, because they are waiting for even more attractive price values, since bitcoin is unlikely to start growing until the moment when the Fed at least announces its readiness to stop raising its rates. Recall that the value of bitcoin is estimated in dollars, so the Fed's actions are of priority importance.

In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" could not overcome the $ 24,350, but they also could not yet overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel, and it is unknown how much time Bitcoin will spend on it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is much better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will take you to the $12,426 level.