09.05.202304:18 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: How did Non-farms and unemployment affect Bitcoin?

Bitcoin continues to trade around the $29,750 level. The uptrend still persists, but the cryptocurrency has not been able to confidently overcome the specified level. There have already been four attempts, so we can confirm that Bitcoin is moving according to the pattern we have repeatedly mentioned earlier: a surge – followed by several weeks/months of flat trading. Now, a month and a half of flat trading is ongoing within the channel of $26,800 to $30,600. This channel "crosses" the $29,750 level, so even its breakthrough will not guarantee a revival of the uptrend. Thus, new purchases require confirmation in the form of overcoming the $30,600 level.

Last week, several important reports were published in the US, and the Federal Reserve held a meeting, at which a decision was made to raise the key rate by another 0.25%. In fact, we did not expect a market reaction to the Fed meeting. The rate hike was known in advance, and everyone was sure of it. Even currency pairs reacted very modestly to it, as to a routine report. Therefore, we pinned great hopes on Friday's US data. The unemployment rate and NonFarm Payrolls could have been worse than last month, which could create additional pressure on the dollar and help Bitcoin extend its growth.

However, in reality, these important reports also had no impact on the course of trading. The number of Non-farms exceeded the forecast by 60,000, but the value of the previous month was revised downwards by about the same amount. The unemployment rate fell contrary to forecasts, but for Bitcoin, this means absolutely nothing. Recall that for the cryptocurrency market, the Fed's monetary policy is of great importance. Also take note of the fact that traders try to work out future events and changes. So what do we get?

In our case, all key rate hikes were worked out six months ago. Since Bitcoin is growing, the market is now working on the completion of the tightening cycle and future rate cuts, which may already happen at the beginning of next year. The Fed made no extreme or unexpected decisions, inflation continues to fall, and Friday's data do not change the Fed's plans for the 2023 rate. Accordingly, there was essentially nothing for the cryptocurrency market to react to.

On the 24-hour chart, Bitcoin has repeatedly tried to overcome the $29,750 level but always fails. Thus, traders can only open long positions with $34,267 as the target once the price breaks through this level. Each bounce from $29,750 will entail a correction wave of $2,000 to $3,000 downwards. However, besides the $29,750 level, we also advise focusing on the sideways channel of $26,800 to $30,600. The cryptocurrency may spend some more time within it.