17.09.201310:04 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: AUD/USD analysis for September 17, 2013

AUD/USD Elliott Wave 
Since our last analyses, the AUDUSD pair has been trading downwards, just like we expected, impulsive wave .1 (coloured black) of the bigger wave 1 (coloured green) has been developing. During the Monday's Asian and European sessions we could observe an ascending movement from 0.9283 towards the 0.9386 level, and we can consider this move as the end of the final (c) wave (coloured blue) of the bigger 4 wave (coloured red).Therefore, during the New York session when developing of the wave 5 starts, this major currency pair did not manage to hold this level and the price retraced back to the 0.9308 level. At the moment, the AUDUSD pair is trading around 0.9315 and we are expecting to see continuation of the bearish movement in the next couple of weeks. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave 5 should retrace 123.6% of wave 4, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 4 with take profit at 0.8754 (123.6% of wave 4). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at the 0.9500 level as stop loss.

Alternation: Wave 4 (coloured green) is developing a FLAT correction, we are going to see one more drop before the price continues to push higher and complete the 5 swings movements inside the final (c) wave (coloured blue).

Support and Resistance 
(S3) 0.9195 (S2) 0.9250 (S1) 0.9283 (PP) 0.9338 (R1) 0.9371 (R2) 0.9426 (R3) 0.9459

Trading forecast 
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 0.9250 with stop loss at 0.9500 and take profit at 0.8754 are recommended.