21.02.202409:00 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on February 21, 2024

Apparently traders were tired of being forced to be idle on Monday, and so they reacted to economic reports that are usually ignored. On Tuesday, the euro showed positive trades after a eurozone report showed that year-on-year, construction output advanced 1.9%, against expectations of a 2.3% decline. But if there were any data to grab onto yesterday, today the economic calendar is empty. However, this does not mean that nothing interesting will happen. Today, several representatives of both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will speak. They could reveal information regarding the possible timing for interest rate cuts, which could immediately set the market in motion. Given that most likely it will be the ECB that becomes the first among key central banks to start lowering interest rates, a confirmation of this may exert pressure on the euro.

During the upward cycle from the support level of 1.0700, the EUR/USD quote has firmly stayed above 1.0800, indicating an increase in the volume of long positions.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which points to the growth in buying volumes.

On the same time frames, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, corresponding to the quote's movement.

Outlook

Given that the price has settled above the level of 1.0800, we can assume that EUR/USD may rise towards 1.0900. In this case, there will be concerns about the feasibility of a downward cycle. Nevertheless, it is still too early to change trading interests, as it is necessary to obtain technical justifications. For this reason, if the price returns below the 1.0800 mark, this could lead to an increase in the volume of short positions in the euro.

The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term and intraday periods.