01.04.202414:04 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 1st (analysis of morning deals). The pound remains in a narrow side channel

In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.2609 and planned to make decisions based on it for market entry. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened there. Considering the extremely low market volatility before testing the designated level, we still need to reach it. Therefore, we needed to find suitable entry points into the market. The technical picture remained unchanged for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on GBP/USD:

With the release of US statistics, someone will remember the British pound. Figures for the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the ISM Manufacturing Index are expected. Weak data will lead to a decline in the dollar and an increase in GBP/USD. If the reports match economists' forecasts, this may lead to a slight spike in volatility, but I will act based on the morning plan. In case of a decline in the pair, I plan to look for long positions only after forming a false breakout around the new support level of 1.2609, formed at the end of last week. This will allow demand to return with the prospect of reaching 1.2643. A breakout and consolidation above this range will strengthen the bull positions and open the way to 1.2672. The ultimate target will be a maximum of 1.2707, where I plan to make a profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD decline and lack of activity by the bulls at 1.2609 in the second half of the day, the pair will likely return to decline, allowing sellers to get one step closer to reversing the downtrend. In this case, only a false breakout around the next support at 1.2575 will confirm the correct entry point into the market. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from the minimum of 1.2544, with the target of a 30-35 point correction within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD:

Bears have every chance of further building the trend, but for this, good statistics from the US are needed. Today, I plan to act only after defending the resistance at 1.2643, where trading occurs. A false breakout there will confirm the correct entry point for selling in the development of the bearish market, leading to a downward movement towards 1.2609. A breakout and reverse test of this range from bottom to top will deal another blow to the bull positions, leading to stop-loss triggering and opening the way to 1.2575. I expect the presence of large buyers there. The ultimate target will be around 1.2544, where profit will be taken. In the scenario of GBP/USD rising and no activity at 1.2643 in the second half of the day, buyers will feel their strength again. In this case, I will postpone sales until a false breakout at 1.2672. If there is no downward movement, I will also sell GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from 1.2707, but I am only counting on a pair correction down by 30-35 points within the day.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for March 19, there was a sharp reduction in both long and short positions. The results of the Bank of England meeting were quite expected, and against this background, it could be more emphatic to talk about a return in demand for the British pound. The regulator's soft position, becoming more evident with each meeting, is detrimental to the British pound, while the US dollar is in demand due to the Fed's tough stance. Following the meeting, expectations that rates in the UK may be lowered much sooner have only increased, adding pressure to the British pound. The latest COT report stated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 20,680 to 102,605, while short non-commercial positions fell by 3,429 to 49,405. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 13,803.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2610, will act as support.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving average (MA) - determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow.

• Moving average (MA) - determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked on the chart in green.

• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) - Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.

• Bollinger Bands - Period 20.

• Non-commercial traders - speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.

• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.

• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.

• The net non-commercial position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.