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The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. At the moment, we observe the construction of the presumed wave 3 within wave 3 or c of the downtrend segment. If this is indeed the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this segment completed its construction around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend segment should end below.
The market continues to slowly reduce demand for the euro, although the news background fully supports the US dollar. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0955 mark, which is equivalent to 61.8% according to Fibonacci, indicated the completion of the construction of wave 2 within wave 3 or C. Therefore, there is potential for a decline in the pair, and it is significant.
Is there a possibility of a change in wave analysis? There is always one. However, if since October 3 of last year, we have observed a new upward trend segment, then the last downward wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward segment is possible only with a significant complication of the wave analysis.
The correction will not stop the downtrend.
The EUR/USD pair rate decreased by 15 basis points on Wednesday, with the range of movements not exceeding 15 points. Market activity today was very weak, although, at the beginning of the American session, movements could have been more active given the news background. On Wednesday, only two events could attract the attention of market participants. In the morning, Germany released the Ifo business climate report, which turned out to be slightly better than market expectations. However, this report is far from the most important, so the market ignored it. Literally, an hour ago, the US released the report on durable goods orders for March, which almost completely coincided with market expectations. Discrepancies from forecasts were so insignificant that the market did not deem it necessary to react to this report.
This week, the only important event remaining is the GDP report for the first quarter in the US. The American economy continues to slow down, but since its initial values were extremely high, it can slow down for a very long time while remaining at high levels, giving the FOMC the opportunity to maintain the rate at its peak, awaiting a decrease in inflation. Economic growth of 2.5% is expected in the first quarter, which is 0.9% lower than in the fourth quarter of last year. The market is likely to be greatly satisfied by this. The real value of the indicator may be higher than 2.5%, as has happened more than once. Additional support for the US dollar from the news background will not be excessive.
General conclusions:
Based on the analysis of the EUR/USD, the construction of a downtrend wave set continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 within 3 or C are completed, so I expect the continuation of the construction of the impulsive downward wave 3 within 3 or C with a significant decrease in the pair. I continue to consider sales with targets around the calculated level of 1.0463, as the news background remains on the side of the dollar. The necessary signal for sale near the 1.0880 mark was formed (an unsuccessful breakout attempt).
On a larger wave scale, it can be seen that the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length was more than 61.8% according to Fibonacci from the first wave, so it may be completed. If this is indeed the case, the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or C and a decrease in the pair below the 4-figure mark has begun to be implemented.
The main principles of my analysis:
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