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After a sharp rise on Wednesday, the euro retreated by 16 pips the next day. This morning, it continues to show a corrective decline (following the preceding three days of growth). The single currency shows a common feature with the S&P 500: the euro did not quite reach the target level of 1.0905, which gives the impression that it might still hit this level before it starts a significant bearish reversal. In a similar case, the S&P 500 just missed the upper boundary of its ascending price channel at 5355.00, as it fell short by 1.00%. In two days, both the euro and the S&P 500 could reach their respective target levels and then synchronously turn downward.
If the euro drops below the support at 1.0796, which is near the MACD line, it is almost impossible for it to rise further, and the price will start working on a medium-term decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is approaching the MACD indicator line. The first sign of the end of the upward movement and the euro's refusal to rise to 1.0905 will be a break below this MACD line around the 1.0828 mark.
The Marlin oscillator is already close to moving into negative territory, so to prevent a strong bearish reinforcement, it could sharply rise to 1.0905. If the price quickly overcomes this resistance, it might continue to rise towards the next target at 1.0943 (the March 21 high), and wait for a stock market reversal.
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