13.08.202512:24 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Adjustment of Levels and Targets for the U.S. Session on August 13th

Today, the euro, pound, and Japanese yen were traded using the Momentum strategy. I did not use the Mean Reversion approach, as the U.S. dollar continued to lose ground against risk assets, extending yesterday's trend.

According to the data, inflation in Germany matched economists' forecasts exactly, preserving the euro's upward potential. This alignment of macroeconomic indicators on both sides of the Atlantic creates an interesting precedent, suggesting possible coordination or at least interconnection of the economic cycles of the world's leading powers. The match between inflation expectations and actual figures indicates, on the one hand, a high level of analytical accuracy and forecasting precision, and on the other, the resilience of economic trends. In the near term, the rhetoric and actions of regulators will be the key factor shaping the euro's further movement.

Later today, FOMC members Thomas Barkin, Austan D. Goolsbee, and Raphael Bostic are scheduled to speak. Traders are closely watching for any hints about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. These remarks are especially relevant in light of the latest economic data, which present a mixed picture. The labor market, despite strong headline figures, shows a sharp slowdown in growth. Inflation, although lower than previous readings, still exceeds the Fed's 2% target. These conditions create a difficult dilemma for the regulator: on the one hand, it must continue fighting inflation, and on the other, it must avoid triggering a recession.

The speeches from Barkin, Goolsbee, and Bostic will provide insight into the range of views within the FOMC on the current economic situation and its outlook. Given their differing positions on monetary policy in the past, their remarks could offer clues about the likely direction of future Fed decisions. If the data turn out strong, I will focus on implementing the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1735 could lead to growth toward 1.1770 and 1.1810.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1705 could lead to a decline toward 1.1660 and 1.1630.

GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3585 could lead to growth toward 1.3615 and 1.3643.
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3550 could lead to a decline toward 1.3518 and 1.3479.

USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout above 147.35 could lead to growth toward 147.59 and 147.85.
• Selling on a breakout below 147.20 could lead to a decline toward 146.90 and 146.60.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1750 with a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1701 with a return to this level.

GBP/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3600 with a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3534 with a return to this level.

AUD/USD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6577 with a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6542 with a return to this level.

USD/CAD

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3782 with a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3742 with a return to this level.