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USD/JPY
The Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision on Monday . It's widely expected that the central bank will increase its stimulus measures due to the perceived economic slowdown from the government's recent sales tax increase. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe raised the tax for the first time since 1997 to curb Japan’s runaway public debt, the biggest in the industrial world. Japan raised its sales tax to 8% from 5% on April 1 after Mr. Abe had made a final decision to do so last autumn.The government plans to raise the tax further to 10% in October 2015, with Mr. Abe expected to give a final go-ahead later this year. Recent economic data have been worrisome. Japan’s gross domestic product was weaker-than-expected, driven in part by softness in consumer spending and business expenditures. The government pushed through a 5.5 trillion yen supplementary budget in February, and some economists expect the Bank of Japan to introduce more monetary easing.
Technical view
Weekly forecast-
USD/JPY is trading at 103.33 in Asia. After 2-month consolidation, the pair gave a break out at 103 levels. It made a high on Friday's session at 104.11. The pair is trading near the broken upper trend line. IF the pair closes below the purple line, the bear bells will be in the chart, it can fall to 102.4 (50 SMA). In case of a day close below the 50SMA, more bearish views will be generated for 101.7 and 100.75 levels. The major support zone is held between 100.75 and 100 levels. If it closes below 100 levels, we will re-analyze the chart. Fresh up move will take place once the pair crosses Friday's high at the 104.11 level.
On the up side, the levels of 104.84, 105.44, and 106.5 are the open targets with sl 100.75 on a closing basis. The level of 102.0 is the weekly support for April 07-11 with intermediate supports at 102.83, 102.6, and 102.40 levels. Break below the level of 102 only, the pair looks weak for 100.6 and 99 levels.
Buy above 104.11 or wait for a dip at 102, 50sma.
Intraday-
On an intraday basis, the pair is trading in a bearish mode. The pair was sold off in Friday's trading session. Currently, the pair is facing strong resistance at 103.33, 40EMA in H4 chart. If a candle closes above the 40EMA, the pair will fly up to 103.60 and 103.73 levels. The pair will gain more strength once it crosses above the level of 103.73. On the down side, there is a crucial level between 103.11 and 103. Breaks below this, 102.66 is the strong support for today. RSI is not in a comfortable zone for buyers. Whereas stochastics is giving a buy signal. We expect a pullback in the next couple of hours towards the resistance zone between 103.58-103.73 levels.
On the down side, if the pair breaks the level of 102.66, bears will take the pair towards 102, 101.7, and 101.2 levels. On the up side, if the pair crosses the 103.73 levels, it will move up to 104.11 and 104.80 levels intraday and BTST.
Buy above 103.73, or wait for a dip, buy between 103.04 and 102.60.
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