04.05.202610:02 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Market to let off steam

The S&P 500 closed green for a fifth consecutive week, marking its longest run since 2024. Impressive corporate earnings among index constituents have pushed down the forward price-to-earnings ratio and made many stocks look undervalued on a fundamental basis, sparking a fresh wave of buying, including flows from overseas as the US market outperforms European and Asian peers.

S&P 500 companies beating and missing estimates

While roughly one in two of every three S&P 500 issuers have beaten Wall Street estimates, the share of companies missing fundamentals is at its lowest level since 2021. That improvement is not driven solely by blockbuster results from Big Tech: Seaport Research Partners finds that issuers outside the IT sector have produced the largest positive surprises since Q4 2024.

The Magnificent Seven's reaction to earnings has been mixed. Alphabet's report produced a record one-day market-cap gain for the company. By contrast, investor disappointment at Meta Platforms sent its shares tumbling, creating a $566 billion gap in market capitalization among the group.

Magnificent Seven's reaction to earnings

High profits and discounted fundamental valuations are not the only drivers of the S&P 500's run to record highs. Oil has eased on reports that Iran made a new proposal to the US to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, and President Donald Trump has launched "Project Freedom," which is said to help commercial vessels find the safest transit routes through the world's key oil artery.

De-escalation in the Middle East would be an obvious positive for US equities, while escalation would hit the S&P 500.

US economic reports are also delivering pleasant surprises. After GDP expanded 2% in Q1, the manufacturing activity index — anchored near its 2022 highs — signals that the US economy is in decent shape.

Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs issues a warning for US equities. Its research shows hedge funds and trading advisors have begun to reduce net purchases. Coupled with stretched bullish positioning in the S&P 500, that raises the odds of a pullback. The bank believes the market will let off steam in the near term, shedding some of the froth accumulated during the rally to record highs.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart could be forming a reversal pattern centered on a bar with a long upper shadow. Closing the gap with a drop below 7,220 would provide a basis for initiating short-term short positions.