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Fundamental Overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate in a lower range after hitting a seven-month low 0.8121 on Monday. It is supported by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the reduced investor risk appetite, the positive USD sentiment and less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy stance and weak dairy prices. It is undermined by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.591% versus 2.609% late Friday), diminished investor risk appetite (U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight with S&P 500 off 0.07%, DJIA up 0.26%; VIX fear gauge rose 6.09% to 14.12) on news that China's industrial growth slowed to a six-year low in August, jitters about the Scottish independence vote on Thursday and caution before Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday.
Technical Comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling, but stochastics is turning bullish at the oversold zone, bullish-piercing candlestick pattern was completed on Monday.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8120. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8075. The pivot point stands at 0.8190. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8225 and the second target at 0.8265.
Resistance levels:
0.8225
0.8265
0.8305
Support levels:
0.8120
0.8175
0.8135
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