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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570 (reached in January 1997).
Later in April 2015, strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.
The April candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected strong bearish rejection around the level of 1.1450.
The zone of 1.1300-1.1400 remains a significant supply zone to be watched during the current bullish pullback. Bearish rejection should be anticipated around the mentioned supply zone.
On the other hand, the long-term projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted demand level of 1.0570.
On August 2015, the EUR/USD pair looked overbought as the market spiked above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).
Shortly after, the daily supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 produced significant bearish pressure.
A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend was performed on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0600.
In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the current bullish swing was initiated.
During the past few weeks, the level of 1.1000 has been providing a significant bearish rejection. Hence, a consolidation range extending between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart.
A bearish closure below 1.0800 (The lower limit of the consolidation range) was needed to allow further bearish decline.
However, a bullish breakout above the depicted consolidation range was executed. Hence, a quick bullish movement took place towards 1.1200 where previous daily bottoms are located on the chart.
Trading Recommendations:
Risky traders should watch for any signs of a bearish rejection around 1.1200 as a sell signal for a counter-trend position. S/L should be set as a daily candlestick closure above 1.1250.
On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the backside of the previous consolidation range around 1.1000 to buy the EUR/USD pair.
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