14.03.201616:32 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 14/03/2016

Global macro overview for 14/03/2016:

China's industrial production growth has slowed to the weakest level since the financial crisis, sparking concerns over the global recovery. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial output increased by 5.4% in January and February (5.6% expected; 5.9% prior), the worst performance since 2008. Moreover, retail sales growth slowed to 10.2% from 10.8% a month ago (and 11.1% in December 2015). Recent data also revealed that China's exports plunged 25.4% in February compared with the same month last year, biggest monthly drop since 2009. In conclusion, the recent data intensify concerns over economy's health, and the majority of investors might start to buy safer assets like gold, yen or Swiss franc.

So, how is gold, the safe heaven asset, performing from technical point of view? It looks like the bulls have gained control over this market as the impulsive rally from the double bottom at 1,046 has ended 240 dollars higher at 1,283. Currently, on a daily chart we can see a mature bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, so temporary corrective cycle might push the prices lower towards the 1,191 level.