27.04.201609:52 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 27/04/2016

Global macro overview for 27/04/2016:

The US Durable Goods orders data was released yesterday. It disappointed the market participants as they had expected a 1.9% increase, but the number released was at the level of 0.8% only. ( still better than -3.1% a month ago tough). Moreover, the key category, Core Durable Goods Orders, that tracks business investment plans, remained weak for the second month. In conclusion, the Durable Goods Orders have a big impact on the US GDP as the manufacturing alone is responsible for 12% of the US economy. The weak data like this might suggest a downward revision of the first quarter US GDP, which might have an impact on inflation levels. That is why the sum of this year's possible short-term rate hikes by the Fed is limited to only two, but the timing still remains unknown.

Let's take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture in the H4 time frame. The supply zone resistance worked perfectly and the bears managed to push the prices back below the 21,50 and 100 moving average. The level of 95.21 is now the key resistance for bulls if they want to break out of the range. The next support is seen at the level of 94.21 and then, 93.92.