06.05.201609:47 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 06/05/2016

Global macro overview for 06/05/2016:

The main event of the week has finally arrived, the non-farm employment change and unemployment rate data is scheduled for release at 12:30pm GMT today. The market expects the unemployment to stay at the same 5.0% level and the NFP figures to decline slightly from 215K month ago to 203K. Moreover, it is worth to notice that the Wednesday's ADP employment data fell well short of expectations at 156K and this number doesn't really encourage markets to expect any better figures from NFP as well. There is one more important set of data to be released today: the average hourly earnings ( 0.3% m/m; 2.4% y/y expected; 0.3% m/m; 2.3% y/y prior). The indicator is important because inflation is the main concern for the Fed as wages are not growing as much as the policy makers would like to see. In conclusion, very important jobs reports will be published today, please keep an eye on the data.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of EUR/USD in the 4H time frame ahead of the NFP payrolls release. The market is currently bouncing from the support at the level of 1.1396, but if the data is good enough to buy the USD, this level should be violated and market will head towards the next support at the level of 1.1311. Nevertheless, the most important technical support is at the level of 1.1211 and as long as it is not broken, bulls are in control over this market.