30.06.201608:44 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 30/06/2016

Global macro overview for 30/06/2016:

The crude oil inventories data revealed a deeper drain in stockpiles than anticipated. The indicator plunged by 4100k barrels, compared to an estimate of -2500k, way below the last week figure of -917k only. US crude oil stockpiles have declined for six straight weeks, with the recent one being the largest so far. This situation could lead to tightening the domestic supply, which might send crude oil prices higher as a result. Moreover, the local shale producers might enter the market if the price jumps above $50 to prevent it from rallying even further.

Let's now take a look at the crude oil technical picture on the 4H time frame. The price rallied after yesterday's data, but it was capped at the dashed trend line resistance around the level of 50 dollars. This recent high might be another lower high in the sequence, but a confirmation will come with the level of 45.81 violation. For now, the market is trading in a down-sloping congestion zone between the levels of 45.81 - 50.55.