21.10.201611:34 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 21/10/2016

Global macro overview for 21/10/2016:

There were no surprises from the ECB yesterday as the bank has left the interest rates, deposit facility rate and marginal lending facility all unchanged. This means the bank's asset-purchase program (QE) has been left unchanged and during the press conference the ECB head Mario Draghi made dovish comments. The current key question for the global investors is when the ECB is planning to make a decision to extend the QE program that ends in March 2017. The most probable date is December 2017, just after the anticipated FED meeting will take place. The other reason to expect the ECB to take action in December is the inflation increase in the recent months.Despite the fact that the inflation gains remains well below the ECB's inflation target of just below 2.0%, the ECB may opt to raise QE levels in December in order to raise inflation.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at 4H time frame. After the ECB decision, the initial rally has been faded and new low has been made. The support at the level of 1.0911 has been violated and now the next support is seen at the level of 1.0821. Bears are in full control over this market, but the sell-off is losing momentum, so internal correction is now due.