24.02.201709:34 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 24/02/2017

Global macro overview for 24/02/2017:

In his last speech in the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe admitted that the Australian economy will likely fall below the RBA growth target of around 2.5% to 3% in 2016. "A year ago, we were expecting the Australian economy to grow by around 2,5%–3.0% in 2016, but have not received the final figures for the year yet, so the outcome is likely to be lower, at around 2.0%" he said at the meeting. Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.5% in the third quarter, marking the first contraction since 2011. The biggest concern is the third quarter performance of the Australian economy. It was described as surprisingly weak, but the reasons behind this contraction seem to be temporary and a repeat of that performance is not expected in October-December.

Let's take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The resistance at the level of 0.7732 was taken out, but there is no continuation of this move. The reason might be the overbought trading conditions and growing bearish divergence on this time frame. This is why the bias is bearish as some kind of a corrective pattern with the target at the level of 0.7511 seems to be the next pattern in progress.