06.03.201711:38 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 06/03/2017

Global macro overview for 06/03/2017:

This week looks very busy with a lot of macroeconomic data release, so let's take a look at the calendar to see when the volatility will increase. The biggest event of the week is the Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data release that will play a major role in the highly anticipated Fed interest rate decision later this month (180k jobs expected, 4.7% unemployment rate). There is another interest rate decision, this time from European Central Bank on Thursday, but no change in policy is expected here (0.0% rate expected). The last interest rate decision comes from Australia, but again the Reserve Bank kept the official cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at their February meeting and it is expected to leave it unchanged again this month.

The list of the other events is here:

Monday, 6. March

04:00 pm GMT - USA Durable & Factory Orders

Tuesday, 7. March

03:30 am GMT - Australia Interest Rate Decision

10:00 am GMT - Q4 Euro Zone GDP

01:30 pm GMT - USA Trade Balance

Wednesday, 8. March

11:50 pm GMT - Japan Releases Q4 GDP Figures

01:15 pm GMT - ADP Employment Change from U.S.

01:30 pm GMT - Canadian Building Permits

Thursday, 9. March

01:30 am GMT - China CPI

12:45 pm GMT - ECB Intrest Rate Decision

01:30 pm GMT - ECB Press Conference

Friday, 10. March

09:30 am GMT - UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production

01:30 pm GMT - Canadian Unemployment Rate

01:30 pm GMT - NFP Payrolls

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture as the RBA will be the first bank to decide on the interest rate this week. The market had broken out of the dashed channel and almost reached 38%Fibo retracement at the level of 0.7518. Currently, the market conditions are oversold at the H4 time frame and the price is trading around the technical resistance at the level of 0.7606. If the RBA will not hike the interest rate, as market participants expect, then the price should move downward towards the level of 0.7518 and 0.7450. On the other hand, if the RBA will hike the interest rate, then the new high above the level of 0.7740 will be made.