21.03.201712:19 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 21/03/2017

Global macro overview for 21/03/2017:

The last Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting highlighted the ongoing improvement in the global environment, the stronger-than-expected rise in Q4 GDP in Australia, and assumptions that terms of trade could be stronger than expected. Nevertheless, the positive tone was contrasted with deepening housing risk: "Recent data continued to suggest that there had been a build-up of risks associated with the housing market. In some markets, conditions had been strong and prices were rising briskly, although in other markets prices were declining", is the direct quote from RBA statement. As we remember, the latest RBA decision was to keep the interest rates on hold at the level of 1.50% which is a record low level since August 2016. However, some analysts say, that policymakers are hesitant to lower interest rates to avoid fanning an overheated property market, which appears to have run even hotter in the latter half of 2016. Home prices in Sydney and Melbourne especially skyrocketed in 2016 thanks to a steady rise in investment. In conclusion, the GDP projection was met (GDP growth rebounded 1.1% in the final quarter of 2016.), but the overheated property market might get worse in the near future.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market is trading in a tight horizontal zone between the levels of 0.7718 - 0.7740, just below the swing top at the level of 0.7777. The market conditions are overbought and a clear bearish divergence suggests a corrective cycle might come any time now. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7000 and then 0.7662.