07.04.201710:06 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 07/04/2017

Global macro overview for 07/04/2017:

Another set of good data from the US job market has hit the newsfeeds yesterday. The US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 234k in the week ending April 1st from a revised 259k the previous week (which was originally reported as 258k) and were significantly lower than consensus forecasts of a smaller retreat to 250k for the week. This was the lowest reading for five weeks and put claims very close to 43-year lows. Moreover, Continuing Claims declined to 2.028mln in the week ending March 25th from 2.052mln previously. This was the lowest reading since June 2000. In conclusion, the US job market is still in a good shape and today's Non-Farm Payrolls data release might easily beat the market consensus of 174 jobs created. In that case, the US Dollar will advance even higher and FED will have another reason to justify the next interest rate hike.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bears have managed to test the technical support at the level of 110.10 again but did not clearly violate it yet. The oversold market conditions and growing bearish divergence are indicating a possible bounce from this level and the first clue of this relief rally will be a breakout above the black, dashed trend line around the level of 111.00. The bulls then should target the next technical resistance at the level of 111.56.