13.04.201711:47 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 13/04/2017

Global macro overview for 13/04/2017:

The US Dollar lost ground after US President Donald Trump said that the US currency is too strong while mentioning that he would prefer the Federal Reserve to keep the rates lower as he said in an interview to Wall Street Journal yesterday: "I like low rate policy." Trump's comments hit the headlines a day after Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen announced that a 'neutral' stance would be appropriate for the US monetary policy. Moreover, Trump said, that Yellen is 'toast', and is open to extended her term, which is an 180-degree opposite to his campaign promises and statements when he railed against Yellen and Federal Reserve in one of the debates. The last, but not least statement from yesterday is that "China isn't manipulating its currency". That's an another 180-degree turn from what he was saying in the final weeks of the campaign, when he promised to label China a currency manipulator. In conclusion, after the election, Trump is having second thoughts regarding future interest rates increase, FED's Yellen and currency wars, which is affecting the financial markets. The implied probability of a June interest rate hike eased to 60% after his comments.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 timeframe. After almost covering the gap, the market reversed to test the 50%Fibo at the level of 110.10 and now it looks like it is trading higher. Nevertheless, the current geopolitical situation and recent Trump's comments do not help the bulls to climb higher. The next resistnace is seen at the level of 100.87.