22.08.201711:24 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 22/08/2017

Long-term review

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Global macro overview for 22/08/2017:

According to a survey conducted by the US National Association for Business Economics in August, only 17% of economists think Janet Yellen will remain in the Fed President's chair for the next term (after February 2018). The current shortlist include Gary Cohn (current White House economic adviser), who has 49% chances, former Fed member Kevin Warsh (9%), Stanford University economist John Taylor (6%), and Glenn Hubbard of the University of Columbia (4%).

The results of a survey of as many as 176 economists on the possible future of the Fed Chairperson appeared several days before the Jackson Hole symposium. Can it be the last public appearances at this place by Janet Yellen? In the current situation, all speculations regarding the future of Jannet Yellen are premature. The reason is quite simple: Trump's administration has far more problems to solve than the appointment of a new Fed boss. Moreover, Yellen's monetary policy in recent months has been linked to a gradual and balanced monetary tightening and a weaker US Dollar, which in fact is a preferable situation for Trump.

Global investors will get familiar with more details from the Fed on Friday afternoon when Jannet Yellen will give a speech at Jackson Hole. There are many possible scenarios being anticipated right now by markets, but the most important issue is a question, whether there will be any changes in long-term expectations of FOMC members regarding interest rates that will be introduced at the Fed next meeting in September. Anything else seems to be pure speculations.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The price has broken out from the navy channel around the level of 93.30 and bounced from the technical support at the level of 93.02. Currently, the price is testing the channel line from below in oversold market conditions. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 93.63.

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