25.09.201712:25 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 25/09/2017

Global macro overview for 25/09/2017:

Chancellor Merkel will remain in office for the fourth term, but support from other political factions will be needed. The main parties have historically achieved the worst results since the 1940s, with the Bundestag, with the third, the far right. In the lower chamber for the first time since the 1950s, there will be as many as six groups. After the first series of comments, expect the so-called: Jamaica-Coalition, that will include CDU / CSU, FDP and Green Party agreement. It is worth remembering that after the last coalition of the CDU / CSU the liberals threatened to disappear from the political scene of Germany, which should make the FDP not an easy coalition. Such a composition of the coalition and it's approximately 52% the number of votes reduces the chances for an ambitious reform agenda, especially as regards the functioning of the European Union (contradictory positions of the Greens and FDP).

In conclusion: political uncertainty is growing in Germany. In the nearest future, European policy will adversely affect the strength of the Euro and the valuation of European assets. The illusion created after the French presidential (and Dutch parliamentary) elections has ended, suggesting that the support for extremist groups and movements has begun to sharply decrease.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the clear rejection of 78%Fibo at the level of 134.31, the price has started to decrease towards the next important technical support at the level of 132.01. This view is being supported by overbought market conditions and downward pointing momentum indicator.