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Monday should be a calm day. The main reason is the US President's Day (the memory of the birth of Washington), so the biggest stock exchanges will remain closed. Let's add to this that until Wednesday, the Chinese will celebrate the New Year.
We will start Tuesday with data on the Swiss foreign trade balance and a report on wages in Hungary, which have recently grown at a double-digit rate. The next most important information is the publication of inflation data in Sweden and the latest reading of the ZEW index from Germany.
On Wednesday, we will begin another review of the initial PMI indices for the world's leading economies. Data will come from Japan, France, Germany, the Eurozone and the US. In the evening, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be published. Investors will look for guidelines regarding the subsequent movements of the Federal Reserve.
On Thursday morning in France, the final data on consumer inflation and the index of entrepreneurs' sentiments will come from France while Germany will release the Ifo index. Later on, the UK will publish the final GDP estimates for the fourth quarter. The event of the day will be the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts data.
The last working day of the week will start with the final data on German GDP, while an hour later Eurostat will present data on consumer inflation. A similar report will come from Canada in the afternoon. The week will be closed with the publication of the Federal Reserve's report on monetary policy.
Let's now take a look at the Dow Jones index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has managed to retrace 61% of the previous swing down and hit the level of 25,435. Currently, the price is pulling back towards the nearest technical support at the level of 24,893 as the market conditions are extremely overbought. Moreover, the momentum is starting to turn down a bit as the RSI indicator points to the downside. The larget time frame trend remains upwards.
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