21.06.201809:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 21/06/2018

The Bank of England also should not change the policy parameters (interest rates, asset purchase program). Previous supporters of the hike (McCafferty and Saunders) should stay with their opinion, but the rest of the committee will keep its cautious approach. Data from the last meeting do not give clear indications that the second quarter brings such an important rebound after the weak start of the year. PMI indexes rebounded and prices in the industry are rising, but production in April collapsed. Nevertheless, BoE would probably like to make a hike before the settlements (or the confusion because of their absence) of Brexit negotiations, which will take place in October / November. For this reason, the hopes for a hike in August are not going away, but today's BoE is unlikely to suggest whether it is more or less real. However, even small changes in the content of the message regarding the assessment of economic activity may be significant for today's GBP behavior. Risk asymmetry shows an advantage in favor of the Pound, because the neutral statement will not disturb growing expectations for the August increase.

The Bank of England is expected to hold the interest rate at 0.50%, together with Asset Purchase Facility at 435bln. The BoE decision is scheduled at 11:00 am GMT, together with Monetary Policy Summary release.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The key technical resistance at the level of 1.3217 is still not violated as the bulls were too weak to break through it. Since then, the price has fallen towards the level of 1.3124 in a Falling Wedge formation. In a case of a further drop, the next important support is seen at the level of 1.3000 and this level might be very well defended by bulls. Please notice, the market conditions are now oversold on multiple timeframes and the momentum is still weak as it hovers below its fifty level.