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Gold has been quite corrective and indecisive at near $1,400 where 20 EMA has been holding the price as dynamic support while the price is correcting itself after the impulsive bullish move.
Gold prices headed higher recently as a boost in risk from generally positive economic data was insufficient to derail demand in an environment marked by decreasing yields. Despite the positive reaction to the data in global equities today, US futures pointed to new record highs which helped gold to hold gains as the precious metal continued to benefit from expectations of decreasing rates. As expectations for further policy easing across the globe increase, yields have been dropping on most fixed-income products bonds, even those traditionally seen as high-risk in economic downturns.
The Federal Reserve has been under pressure from the US government. Some Fed officials believe that lower interest rates would lead to achieving the inflation goal. Investors are betting that Fed officials will announce a reduction in the benchmark overnight interest rate on July 30-31. Recently, quarterly projections published after the FOMC's June meeting revealed that the committee's median estimate of the neutral interest rate had fallen to 2.5% from 2.75% that indicates strong likelihood of the rate cut.
US Retail Sales are expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.5%. Such downbeat retail sales could shift market sentiment in favor of gold as safe-haven investment for the coming days.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The price has been trading in a range between $1,400 to $1,440 where the dynamic level of 20 EMA managed to hold the price as support. MACD currently has no Bearish Divergence that indicates further corrections. However, having a bullish crossover in the Moving Average lines indicates that a break below $1,400 will push the price lower to $1,350 before any bullish pressure will resume a climb towards $1,500 in the future.
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