21.09.201702:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Will the Fed raise the rate in December?

Despite the fact that the data on construction in the US came out better than expected, the dollar could not take advantage of this. So, it was projected that the number of construction projects started will amount to 1,175,000, and there were 1,180,000 of them. True, it was expected that their number will grow but due to a revision of previous data upwards, up to 1,190,000, they decreased by 0.8%. But the number of issued permits, which should have been reduced to 1,220 thousand, and despite a review of the previous data, from 1,223 thousand to 1,230 thousand, increased by 5.7%, to 1,300 thousand. Nevertheless, the market ignored this data.

The thing is at today's meeting of the Federal Reserve Committee on open market operations. Of course, the refinancing rate will remain unchanged, but the market is waiting for Janet Yellen's press conference, which will take place immediately after the meeting. Last year, the Federal Reserve assured that by the end of this year the rate will be raised to 1.50%, which is why the dollar grew. However, in the spring of this year, fears began to grow that the Fed would not fulfill its promise, and the dollar began to gradually become cheaper. And for that, there was a good reason, the inflation in the US slowed. However, now inflation has started to increase again, and the unemployment rate continues to be significantly below 5.0%. If the head of the Fed today announced the possibility of raising rates in December this year, the dollar will resume its growth. However, if investors do not hear what they want on the dollar, this will be slightly affected, since such a scenario is already taken into account in the dollar price.

If Janet Yellen announced the possibility of a rate hike in December, then the euro/dollar pair will fall to 1.1945, followed by a move towards 1.1845. Otherwise, it is worth waiting for growth to 1.2045.

The pair of pound/dollar, under the same conditions, has every chance to start to decline in the direction of 1.3335. If Janet Yellen does not justify the investors' hopes, the pair will continue to consolidate around 1.3535.