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20.11.201710:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The political problems in Germany pressured the euro

Long-term review
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The political problems in Germany are exerted by the strong pressure against the European currency, which fell significantly against the US currency along with other currencies in the morning.

The main reason for the rapid decline in the euro was the attempt of Angela Merkel to form a ruling coalition including the three German parties, however, resulted in failure this Sunday. The refusal of the Free Democrats party was the main reason for the failure of the talks. Currently, the chancellor has several options which one is considered worse than the other.

The first option is to create a minority government coupled with the Green Party, which, according to rumors, has already refused the proposal because of the declination by the Free Democrats.

The second option is to hold new elections, which clearly will not favor the side of Angela Merkel. The inability to create a majority coalition in parliament will tie Merkel's hands, as the weak government will have to take more careful and cautious decisions because of the probability of losing the remaining popularity.

Meanwhile, the euro fell from the level of 1.1800 to support 1.1725, where it continues to trade as of this moment. The breakthrough of this range will lead to new large sales with the renewal to 1.1680 and the main target reversal to 1.1640, where a strong upward movement formed last week.

The Australian dollar calmly accepted the report of the International Monetary Fund, which shows that there are prerequisites for accelerating Australia's economic growth at present. The IMF said that the acceleration of economic growth in Australia would likely to be moderate. And when full employment is achieved, a steady rise in inflation is possible. However, according to IMF experts, policy support is needed in order to achieve full employment and a target inflation rate.

Japan's export growth data in October of this year failed to strongly support the Japanese yen, as it turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts.

According to the report from the Ministry of Finance of the country, Japan's exports in October for this year increased by 14.0% compared with the same period last year. This happened due to strong demand from foreign markets for cars. Economists had expected export growth of 15.5%.

Japan's foreign trade surplus in October was 285 billion yen, while economists forecast came in at 330 billion yen.

Exchange Rates 20.11.2017 analysis

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024

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